DAILY SUMMARY · MONDAY

October 5, 2026

Today's simulated matchups, live scoreboards, Monte Carlo distributions, and portfolio-approved wagers.

2Games

10,000Sims / game

1Qualified bets

2.50uKelly exposure

MATCHUPS

Today's games

5:00 PM ETOfficial lineups

Chicago White SoxAway

3.6 proj 3.6

43%

Cleveland GuardiansHome

3.9 proj 3.9

57%

7.5Total56%NRFI0Bets

View simulation

8:00 PM ETOfficial lineups

New York YankeesAway

4.8 proj 4.8

62%

Tampa Bay RaysHome

3.4 proj 3.4

38%

8.2Total54%NRFI1Bets

View simulation

PORTFOLIO

Recommended wagers

Best price only · covariance-capped

Game	Market	Selection	Fair	Model	Edge	EV	Stake	Added	Live	Sportsbook
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays	Moneyline	New York Yankees · -124	53.5%	62.1%	+8.6%	+12.2%	2.50u	7:53 PM	—	Bet at fanduel ↗

MONTE CARLO DFS · DRAFTKINGS MLB

DraftKings Simulated Fantasy Points

10th, 25th, 50th (Median), 75th, 90th & MAX simulated points across full Monte Carlo paths

40Players Projected

40Official Lineups

Gavin Williams (21.7)Top 50th %ile (Median)

Gavin Williams (38.7)Highest Sim Ceiling (MAX)

Cam Schlittler ($13,200)Top Salary (6 Slates)

Gavin Williams (61.8%)Top Sim Optimal %

Optimal Showdown Lineups (Monte Carlo Global Optimum)

Exact integer-optimal DFS lineups computed across all 10,000 game simulation paths

1 CPT (1.5× pts & sal) + 5 UTIL · ≤ $50,000 cap · Both teams represented

👑 [Featured] Showdown(NYY @ TB) · 8,858 distinct winning lineups across 10,000 simulations

Showing Top 12 Winning Lineups

#1 Optimal Lineup

$49,400 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

11 / 10,000 sims (0.11%)

CPT 1.5× Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$6,000

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$10,000

UTIL Ryan McMahon 3B · New York Yankees

$3,400

UTIL Trent Grisham OF · New York Yankees

$6,800

UTIL Tyler Wells SP · NYY

$10,000

#2 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · New York Yankees 4 · Tampa Bay Rays 1 · NYY 1

10 / 10,000 sims (0.10%)

CPT 1.5× Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$19,800

UTIL Ryan McMahon 3B · New York Yankees

$3,400

UTIL Spencer Jones OF · New York Yankees

$6,000

UTIL Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$4,000

UTIL Trent Grisham OF · New York Yankees

$6,800

UTIL Tyler Wells SP · NYY

$10,000

#3 Optimal Lineup

$49,400 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

9 / 10,000 sims (0.09%)

CPT 1.5× Spencer Jones OF · New York Yankees

$9,000

UTIL Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$3,200

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$10,000

UTIL Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$4,000

UTIL Tyler Wells SP · NYY

$10,000

#4 Optimal Lineup

$49,600 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

9 / 10,000 sims (0.09%)

CPT 1.5× Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$6,000

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$10,000

UTIL Ryan McMahon 3B · New York Yankees

$3,400

UTIL Trent Grisham OF · New York Yankees

$6,800

UTIL Will Warren SP · NYY

$10,200

#5 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · NYY 2 · Tampa Bay Rays 1

7 / 10,000 sims (0.07%)

CPT 1.5× Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$4,800

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Max Fried SP · NYY

$11,200

UTIL Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$4,000

UTIL Trent Grisham OF · New York Yankees

$6,800

UTIL Tyler Wells SP · NYY

$10,000

#6 Optimal Lineup

$49,600 / $50k · Tampa Bay Rays 3 · New York Yankees 2 · NYY 1

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$6,000

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$10,000

UTIL Nick Fortes C · Tampa Bay Rays

$3,600

UTIL Trent Grisham OF · New York Yankees

$6,800

UTIL Tyler Wells SP · NYY

$10,000

#7 Optimal Lineup

$49,400 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$6,000

UTIL Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$3,200

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$10,000

UTIL Trent Grisham OF · New York Yankees

$6,800

UTIL Will Warren SP · NYY

$10,200

#8 Optimal Lineup

$49,800 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · NYY 2 · Tampa Bay Rays 1

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$6,000

UTIL Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$3,200

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Max Fried SP · NYY

$11,200

UTIL Spencer Jones OF · New York Yankees

$6,000

UTIL Will Warren SP · NYY

$10,200

#9 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · New York Yankees 2 · NYY 2

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$6,000

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Max Fried SP · NYY

$11,200

UTIL Nick Fortes C · Tampa Bay Rays

$3,600

UTIL Spencer Jones OF · New York Yankees

$6,000

UTIL Tyler Wells SP · NYY

$10,000

#10 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$15,000

UTIL Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$3,200

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Gerrit Cole SP · NYY

$11,200

UTIL Ryan McMahon 3B · New York Yankees

$3,400

UTIL Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$4,000

#11 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$15,000

UTIL Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$3,200

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Max Fried SP · NYY

$11,200

UTIL Ryan McMahon 3B · New York Yankees

$3,400

UTIL Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$4,000

#12 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · New York Yankees 3 · Tampa Bay Rays 2 · NYY 1

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Freddy Peralta SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$15,000

UTIL Austin Wells C · New York Yankees

$3,200

UTIL Cam Schlittler SP · New York Yankees

$13,200

UTIL Carlos Rodon SP · NYY

$11,200

UTIL Ryan McMahon 3B · New York Yankees

$3,400

UTIL Steven Matz SP · Tampa Bay Rays

$4,000

👑 Showdown(CWS @ CLE) · 9,300 distinct winning lineups across 10,000 simulations

Showing Top 12 Winning Lineups

#1 Optimal Lineup

$49,700 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 2 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 2

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Davis Martin SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Jake Rogers C · Chicago White Sox

$3,000

UTIL Jo Adell OF · Cleveland Guardians

$6,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Noah Schultz SP · CLE

$9,000

#2 Optimal Lineup

$49,700 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 2 · Chicago White Sox 2 · CLE 2

6 / 10,000 sims (0.06%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Jake Rogers C · Chicago White Sox

$3,000

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Noah Schultz SP · CLE

$9,000

UTIL Sean Burke SP · CLE

$10,400

UTIL Steven Kwan OF · Cleveland Guardians

$6,400

#3 Optimal Lineup

$49,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 1

5 / 10,000 sims (0.05%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Austin Hedges C · Cleveland Guardians

$4,400

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL Foster Griffin SP · CLE

$10,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Sean Burke SP · CLE

$10,400

#4 Optimal Lineup

$49,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 2 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 2

5 / 10,000 sims (0.05%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL David Fry 1B · Cleveland Guardians

$4,800

UTIL Foster Griffin SP · CLE

$10,800

UTIL Jake Rogers C · Chicago White Sox

$3,000

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Sean Burke SP · CLE

$10,400

#5 Optimal Lineup

$49,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 2 · Chicago White Sox 2 · CLE 2

5 / 10,000 sims (0.05%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL Jake Rogers C · Chicago White Sox

$3,000

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Parker Messick SP · CLE

$11,800

UTIL Tanner Bibee SP · CLE

$10,800

#6 Optimal Lineup

$49,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 1

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL David Fry 1B · Cleveland Guardians

$4,800

UTIL Davis Martin SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Foster Griffin SP · CLE

$10,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

#7 Optimal Lineup

$48,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · Chicago White Sox 2 · CLE 1

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Chase DeLauter OF · Cleveland Guardians

$7,400

UTIL Jake Rogers C · Chicago White Sox

$3,000

UTIL Jo Adell OF · Cleveland Guardians

$6,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Tanner Bibee SP · CLE

$10,800

#8 Optimal Lineup

$49,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 1

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL David Fry 1B · Cleveland Guardians

$4,800

UTIL Erick Fedde SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Foster Griffin SP · CLE

$10,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

#9 Optimal Lineup

$49,400 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 1

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× Jo Adell OF · Cleveland Guardians

$10,200

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL Davis Martin SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Foster Griffin SP · CLE

$10,800

UTIL Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$11,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

#10 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 1

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× Travis Bazzana 2B · Cleveland Guardians

$10,800

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL Erick Fedde SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Foster Griffin SP · CLE

$10,800

UTIL Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$11,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

#11 Optimal Lineup

$49,900 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 2 · Chicago White Sox 2 · CLE 2

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$17,700

UTIL Braden Montgomery OF · Chicago White Sox

$5,000

UTIL Daniel Schneemann 3B/OF · Cleveland Guardians

$3,400

UTIL Davis Martin SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Jake Rogers C · Chicago White Sox

$3,000

UTIL Tanner Bibee SP · CLE

$10,800

#12 Optimal Lineup

$50,000 / $50k · Cleveland Guardians 3 · CLE 2 · Chicago White Sox 1

4 / 10,000 sims (0.04%)

CPT 1.5× David Fry 1B · Cleveland Guardians

$7,200

UTIL Chase DeLauter OF · Cleveland Guardians

$7,400

UTIL Davis Martin SP · CLE

$10,000

UTIL Gavin Williams SP · Cleveland Guardians

$11,800

UTIL Luisangel Acuna SS · Chicago White Sox

$3,200

UTIL Sean Burke SP · CLE

$10,400

Status	Player	Pos	Salary	Opt %	CPT %	Game	10th	25th	50th ▼	75th	90th	MAX
Official	Gavin Williams Cleveland Guardians	SP	$8,700	61.8%	21.6%	CWS @ CLE	13.2	17.2	21.7	26.7	31.2	38.7
Official	Cam Schlittler New York Yankees	SP	$13,200	42.1%	8.2%	NYY @ TB	11.8	15.8	20.3	25.3	29.8	37.3
Official	Freddy Peralta Tampa Bay Rays	SP	$10,000	37.2%	9.6%	NYY @ TB	5.0	9.0	13.5	18.5	23.0	30.5
Official	Anthony Kay Chicago White Sox	SP	$5,000	1.2%	—	CWS @ CLE	4.4	8.4	12.9	17.9	22.4	29.9
Official	Spencer Jones New York Yankees	OF	$6,000	30.0%	6.4%	NYY @ TB	0.0	3.2	7.8	13.3	20.7	33.1
Official	Ben Rice New York Yankees	DH	$9,600	13.9%	2.2%	NYY @ TB	0.0	3.1	7.6	13.0	20.1	32.2
Official	José Ramírez Cleveland Guardians	3B	—	—	—	CWS @ CLE	0.0	3.1	7.6	12.9	20.0	32.0
Official	Jazz Chisholm Jr. New York Yankees	2B	$8,400	15.9%	2.7%	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.9	7.1	12.2	18.9	30.2
Official	Cody Bellinger New York Yankees	OF	$8,000	15.1%	1.9%	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.9	7.1	12.1	18.7	30.0
Official	Junior Caminero Tampa Bay Rays	3B	$9,800	11.6%	1.6%	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.9	7.0	11.9	18.5	29.6
Official	Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians	OF	$3,800	22.7%	4.2%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.8	6.9	11.7	18.2	29.1
Official	Luis García Jr. New York Yankees	1B	—	—	—	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.8	6.9	11.7	18.2	29.1
Official	George Lombard Jr. New York Yankees	SS	$4,600	—	—	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.7	6.6	11.3	17.6	28.1
Official	Trent Grisham New York Yankees	OF	$6,800	29.1%	6.1%	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.7	6.6	11.2	17.4	27.9
Official	Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox	3B	$5,400	9.1%	1.2%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.7	6.6	11.2	17.3	27.8
Official	Jo Adell Cleveland Guardians	DH	$3,500	23.8%	4.5%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.7	6.4	11.0	17.1	27.3
Official	Yandy Díaz Tampa Bay Rays	DH	—	—	—	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.6	6.4	10.8	16.8	26.9
Official	Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox	OF	$4,500	11.3%	1.6%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.6	6.2	10.6	16.5	26.4
Official	Tristan Peters Chicago White Sox	OF	$3,100	20.3%	3.5%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.4	5.8	9.8	15.2	24.4
Official	Victor Mesa Jr. Tampa Bay Rays	OF	$6,400	—	—	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.3	5.7	9.7	15.1	24.2
Official	Travis Bazzana Cleveland Guardians	2B	$3,700	15.8%	2.6%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.3	5.7	9.7	15.0	24.0
Official	Austin Wells New York Yankees	C	$3,200	31.6%	5.5%	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.3	5.5	9.5	14.7	23.5
Official	Steven Kwan Cleveland Guardians	OF	$3,300	12.9%	2.2%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.3	5.5	9.4	14.6	23.3
Official	Nathaniel Lowe Cleveland Guardians	1B	$3,000	—	—	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.3	5.5	9.4	14.6	23.3
Official	Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox	1B	$5,200	9.9%	1.6%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.2	5.4	9.1	14.2	22.7
Official	Ryan McMahon New York Yankees	3B	$3,400	28.2%	4.0%	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.1	5.2	8.8	13.7	22.0
Official	Angel Martínez Cleveland Guardians	OF	—	—	—	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.1	5.1	8.7	13.6	21.7
Official	Kyle Teel Chicago White Sox	C	$3,700	—	—	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.1	5.1	8.7	13.5	21.6
Official	Jonny DeLuca Tampa Bay Rays	OF	$5,800	—	—	NYY @ TB	0.0	2.0	4.9	8.4	13.0	20.8
Official	Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox	DH	$3,000	—	—	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.0	4.8	8.3	12.8	20.5
Official	Braden Montgomery Chicago White Sox	OF	$2,800	19.3%	2.8%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	2.0	4.8	8.1	12.6	20.1
Official	Jonathan Aranda Tampa Bay Rays	1B	$7,400	8.6%	0.8%	NYY @ TB	0.0	1.9	4.6	7.9	12.3	19.6
Official	Colson Montgomery Chicago White Sox	SS	$3,900	15.4%	2.5%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	1.9	4.6	7.9	12.2	19.5
Official	Liam Hicks Tampa Bay Rays	C	$7,000	9.4%	0.9%	NYY @ TB	0.0	1.9	4.6	7.8	12.1	19.4
Official	Patrick Bailey Cleveland Guardians	C	$2,700	—	—	CWS @ CLE	0.0	1.8	4.5	7.6	11.8	18.9
Official	Richie Palacios Tampa Bay Rays	2B	$5,000	13.6%	1.6%	NYY @ TB	0.0	1.8	4.4	7.5	11.7	18.7
Official	Brayan Rocchio Cleveland Guardians	SS	$3,100	9.0%	1.0%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	1.7	4.2	7.1	11.0	18.0
Official	Chandler Simpson Tampa Bay Rays	OF	$5,600	7.4%	0.7%	NYY @ TB	0.0	1.7	4.2	7.1	11.0	18.0
Official	Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox	2B	$4,200	5.6%	0.6%	CWS @ CLE	0.0	1.6	3.8	6.5	10.1	17.1
Official	Taylor Walls Tampa Bay Rays	SS	$4,800	8.0%	0.8%	NYY @ TB	0.0	1.4	3.5	5.9	9.2	16.2

Previous slates

2026-10-05 2026-10-04 2026-10-03 2026-10-02 2026-10-01 2026-09-30 2026-09-29 2026-09-28 2026-09-27 2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-17 2026-09-10 2026-09-09 2026-09-08 2026-09-05

October 5, 2026

Today's games

Recommended wagers

DraftKings Simulated Fantasy Points

Optimal Showdown Lineups (Monte Carlo Global Optimum)

Player Name