HISTORICAL CALIBRATION & BACKTEST

Simulation vs. Actuals

Comprehensive calibration verification across 977 simulated regular-season games, 301,012 graded wagering outcomes, and individual player prop performance.

-0.21Run Bias (Sim - Act)

2.87Run MAE

3.66Run RMSE

97.6%Winner Direction Accuracy

977Games Analyzed

DISTRIBUTION ALIGNMENT

Simulated vs. Actual Run Environment

Ground-truth Statcast park and weather baselines

Simulated Mean Runs8.87 R

Actual Mean Runs9.08 R

Model Run Bias-0.21 R

CLV Direct Beat64.2%

The Monte Carlo physics simulation closely tracks league-wide run scoring with minimal under-projection bias (-0.21 runs), well within the 0.35 allowable margin of safety. Sized wagers target pricing inefficiencies without structural variance drift.

Run Distribution Match

0-5 Runs28.4%

6-8 Runs36.1%

9-11 Runs22.5%

12+ Runs13.0%

PLAYER LEVEL INTEGRITY

Star Player Props vs. Actual Outcomes

Player	Team	Stat Prop	Sample Timeframe	Simulated	Actual	Variance	Calibration Accuracy

PRICING DISCIPLINE

Betting Market & Bracket Performance

301,012 evaluated candidate outcomes

Performance by Market

Market	Wagers	Win Rate	Net Profit	ROI

Performance by Price Bracket

Price Bracket	Wagers	Win Rate	Net Profit	ROI

FULL DATABASE AUDIT

Historical Game Run Logs

Showing recent matches

Date	Matchup	Sim Score	Actual Score	Total Delta	Winner Match