MLB SUMMARY · WEDNESDAY
September 30, 2026
Daily simulation snapshot, portfolio performance lookback, and executive calibration intelligence.
4Games
10,000Sims / game
0Qualified bets
0.00uKelly exposure
PORTFOLIO TRACK RECORD
Performance Lookback
Yesterday
Sep 29
+0.00u
Win Rate0.0% (0-0)
ROI0.0%
Beat CLV0.0%
Wagers0
Past 7 Days
Sep 23 – Sep 29
+0.00u
Win Rate0.0% (0-0)
ROI0.0%
Beat CLV0.0%
Wagers0
Past 30 Days
Aug 31 – Sep 29
+5.15u
Win Rate62.5% (40-24)
ROI+8.0%
Beat CLV9.4%
Wagers64
Season to Date
Jun 01 – Sep 29
+80.06u
Win Rate58.7% (2778-1958)
ROI+1.7%
Beat CLV12.5%
Wagers4,736
🤖 AI Simulation Intelligence
Executive Calibration Briefing
Model Integrity: 88.0%
The 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo engine has simulated today's 4-game slate with a calibration integrity score of 88.0%. Contact mechanics and Statcast zone allocations are closely tracking historical baselines. Recommended wagers reflect fitted dynamic subset policies with strict positive expected value hurdles.
Calibration Strengths
- ✓Swing Rate calibrated within 0.5% of historical baseline
- ✓Foul Per Pitch calibrated within 0.7% of historical baseline
- ✓Foul Per Contact calibrated within 0.5% of historical baseline
Audit Watch Areas
- !Whiff Per Swing running 4.0% below historical benchmark (20.2% vs 24.1%)
- !Called Strike Per Take running 4.6% above historical benchmark (34.9% vs 30.3%)
September 29 Standout Calls
- ★Underdog value identification: Flagged Baltimore ML (+145) with 52.4% simulated probability.
- ★Total runs convergence: Projected 8.4 runs across slate with 4.2 runs/team mean forecast.
- ★Strikeout accuracy: 87% of starting pitcher projections landed within 1.5 strikeouts of actuals.