MLB SUMMARY · TUESDAY

September 8, 2026

Daily simulation snapshot, portfolio performance lookback, and executive calibration intelligence.

15Games (5 off · 10 proj)
2,500Sims / game
4Qualified bets
7.41uKelly exposure

PORTFOLIO TRACK RECORD

Performance Lookback

Sized via fractional Kelly · graded against closing odds
Yesterday Sep 07
+0.00u
Win Rate0.0% (0-0)
ROI0.0%
Beat CLV0.0%
Wagers0
Past 7 Days Sep 01 – Sep 07
+0.00u
Win Rate0.0% (0-0)
ROI0.0%
Beat CLV0.0%
Wagers0
Past 30 Days Aug 09 – Sep 07
+63.20u
Win Rate61.1% (675-429)
ROI+5.7%
Beat CLV12.3%
Wagers1,104
Season to Date Jun 01 – Sep 07
+80.06u
Win Rate58.7% (2778-1958)
ROI+1.7%
Beat CLV12.5%
Wagers4,736
🤖 AI Simulation Intelligence

Executive Calibration Briefing

Model Integrity: 88.0%

The 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo engine has simulated today's 15-game slate with a calibration integrity score of 88.0%. Contact mechanics and Statcast zone allocations are closely tracking historical baselines. Recommended wagers reflect fitted dynamic subset policies with strict positive expected value hurdles.

Calibration Strengths

  • Swing Rate calibrated within 0.4% of historical baseline
  • Foul Per Pitch calibrated within 0.7% of historical baseline
  • Foul Per Contact calibrated within 1.1% of historical baseline

Audit Watch Areas

  • !Whiff Per Swing running 3.7% below historical benchmark (20.0% vs 23.7%)
  • !Batted Ball Event Rate running 10.9% above historical benchmark (70.6% vs 59.7%)

September 07 Standout Calls

  • Underdog value identification: Flagged Baltimore ML (+145) with 52.4% simulated probability.
  • Total runs convergence: Projected 8.4 runs across slate with 4.2 runs/team mean forecast.
  • Strikeout accuracy: 87% of starting pitcher projections landed within 1.5 strikeouts of actuals.
Previous slates
2026-09-082026-09-05