ARI

3:10 PM ET · Official lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals

Arizona Diamondbacks is the simulated favorite at 52.0%.

KC
Arizona Diamondbacks4.7proj 4.7
PROJ
Kansas City Royals4.5proj 4.5
52.0%Arizona Diamondbacks win
48.0%Kansas City Royals win
9.20Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+7 runs12.0%
+8 runs16.0%
+9 runs18.0%
+10 runs15.0%
+11 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%
-122.0%
+129.0%
+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days
Arizona DiamondbacksBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage
Kansas City RoyalsBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

TeamRHHRBBSP K
Arizona Diamondbacks4.708.001.203.406.20
Kansas City Royals4.507.701.103.205.80

Arizona Diamondbacks Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 1 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
2Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 2 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
3Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 3 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 4 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
5Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 5 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
6Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 6 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
7Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 7 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
8Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 8 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
9Arizona Diamondbacks Batter 9 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400

Kansas City Royals Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Kansas City Royals Batter 1 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
2Kansas City Royals Batter 2 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
3Kansas City Royals Batter 3 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4Kansas City Royals Batter 4 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
5Kansas City Royals Batter 5 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
6Kansas City Royals Batter 6 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
7Kansas City Royals Batter 7 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
8Kansas City Royals Batter 8 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
9Kansas City Royals Batter 9 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400

Starting Pitchers

StarterTeamIPHRERBBKPitches
Zac Gallen 📊Arizona Diamondbacks6.05.202.202.101.506.8094.0
Cole Ragans 📊Kansas City Royals5.25.502.802.601.805.9091.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature
Humidity
Wind
Wind to CF
Carry multiplier
Park run factor

Team Context

Arizona Diamondbacks

SP: Zac Gallen (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Kansas City Royals

SP: Cole Ragans (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value
No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations
94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)
44%
Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)
38%
High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)
18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches
294.00