2:40 PM ET · Official lineups

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds is the simulated favorite at 52.0%.

Cincinnati Reds4.4proj 4.4

PROJ

Pittsburgh Pirates4.2proj 4.2

52.0%Cincinnati Reds win

48.0%Pittsburgh Pirates win

8.60Mean total

51.0%NRFI

10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+6 runs12.0%

+7 runs16.0%

+8 runs18.0%

+9 runs15.0%

+10 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%

-122.0%

+129.0%

+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days

Cincinnati RedsBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

Pittsburgh PiratesBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

Team	R	H	HR	BB	SP K
Cincinnati Reds	4.40	7.50	1.20	3.40	6.20
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.20	7.20	1.10	3.20	5.80

Cincinnati Reds Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Cincinnati Reds Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Cincinnati Reds Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Cincinnati Reds Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Cincinnati Reds Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Cincinnati Reds Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Cincinnati Reds Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Cincinnati Reds Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Cincinnati Reds Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Cincinnati Reds Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Pittsburgh Pirates Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Pittsburgh Pirates Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Starting Pitchers

Starter	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Pitches
Hunter Greene 📊	Cincinnati Reds	6.0	5.20	2.20	2.10	1.50	6.80	94.0
Paul Skenes 📊	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.2	5.50	2.80	2.60	1.80	5.90	91.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature: —
Humidity: —
Wind: —
Wind to CF: —
Carry multiplier: —
Park run factor: —

Team Context

Cincinnati Reds

SP: Hunter Greene (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Pittsburgh Pirates

SP: Paul Skenes (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value

No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations

94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)

44%

Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)

38%

High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)

18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches: 294.00