2:40 PM ET · Official lineups
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers is the simulated favorite at 54.0%.
Toronto Blue Jays3.8proj 3.8
PROJ
Detroit Tigers4.3proj 4.3
46.0%Toronto Blue Jays win
54.0%Detroit Tigers win
8.10Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations
DISTRIBUTION
Total runs
DISTRIBUTION
Home run margin
PERSONNEL CONTEXT
Bullpen Availability & Workload
Toronto Blue JaysBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
Detroit TigersBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
PROJECTION
Mean box score
| Team | R | H | HR | BB | SP K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3.80 | 6.60 | 1.20 | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| Detroit Tigers | 4.30 | 7.40 | 1.10 | 3.20 | 5.80 |
Toronto Blue Jays Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 1 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 2 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 2 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 3 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 4 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 5 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 5 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 6 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 6 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 7 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 7 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 8 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 8 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 9 | Toronto Blue Jays Batter 9 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
Detroit Tigers Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Tigers Batter 1 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 2 | Detroit Tigers Batter 2 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 3 | Detroit Tigers Batter 3 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | Detroit Tigers Batter 4 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 5 | Detroit Tigers Batter 5 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 6 | Detroit Tigers Batter 6 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 7 | Detroit Tigers Batter 7 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 8 | Detroit Tigers Batter 8 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 9 | Detroit Tigers Batter 9 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
Starting Pitchers
| Starter | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman 📊 | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.0 | 5.20 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 6.80 | 94.0 |
| Tarik Skubal 📊 | Detroit Tigers | 5.2 | 5.50 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 5.90 | 91.0 |
CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT
Pregame inputs
Weather & Park
- Temperature
- —
- Humidity
- —
- Wind
- —
- Wind to CF
- —
- Carry multiplier
- —
- Park run factor
- —
Team Context
Toronto Blue Jays
SP: Kevin Gausman (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
Detroit Tigers
SP: Tarik Skubal (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
PORTFOLIO
Qualified wagers
| Market | Selection | Fair | Model | Edge | EV | Stake | Added | Live | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Tigers · -110 | 54.0% | 54.0% | +4.0% | +3.1% | 1.25u | 11:20 AMNEW | — | Bet at FanDuel ↗ |
SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE
Monte Carlo Similarity Score
94.8%
Path Alignment
Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.
Dominant Simulation Clusters
SIMULATION OPERATIONS
Usage summary
- Mean pitches
- 294.00