SEA

5:40 PM ET · Official lineups

Seattle Mariners at Athletics

Seattle Mariners is the simulated favorite at 56.0%.

ATH
Seattle Mariners4.3proj 4.3
PROJ
Athletics3.6proj 3.6
56.0%Seattle Mariners win
44.0%Athletics win
7.90Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+5 runs12.0%
+6 runs16.0%
+7 runs18.0%
+8 runs15.0%
+9 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%
-122.0%
+129.0%
+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days
Seattle MarinersBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage
AthleticsBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

TeamRHHRBBSP K
Seattle Mariners4.307.401.203.406.20
Athletics3.606.301.103.205.80

Seattle Mariners Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Seattle Mariners Batter 1 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
2Seattle Mariners Batter 2 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
3Seattle Mariners Batter 3 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4Seattle Mariners Batter 4 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
5Seattle Mariners Batter 5 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
6Seattle Mariners Batter 6 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
7Seattle Mariners Batter 7 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
8Seattle Mariners Batter 8 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
9Seattle Mariners Batter 9 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400

Athletics Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Athletics Batter 1 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
2Athletics Batter 2 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
3Athletics Batter 3 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4Athletics Batter 4 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
5Athletics Batter 5 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
6Athletics Batter 6 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
7Athletics Batter 7 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
8Athletics Batter 8 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
9Athletics Batter 9 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400

Starting Pitchers

StarterTeamIPHRERBBKPitches
George Kirby 📊Seattle Mariners6.05.202.202.101.506.8094.0
JP Sears 📊Athletics5.25.502.802.601.805.9091.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature
Humidity
Wind
Wind to CF
Carry multiplier
Park run factor

Team Context

Seattle Mariners

SP: George Kirby (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Athletics

SP: JP Sears (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value
MarketSelectionFairModelEdgeEVStakeAddedLiveSportsbook
MoneylineSeattle Mariners · -11556.0%56.0%+6.0%+4.7%1.50u11:20 AMNEWBet at DraftKings ↗

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations
94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)
44%
Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)
38%
High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)
18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches
294.00