4:10 PM ET · Official lineups

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres is the simulated favorite at 57.0%.

San Diego Padres6.2proj 6.2

PROJ

Colorado Rockies5.1proj 5.1

57.0%San Diego Padres win

43.0%Colorado Rockies win

11.30Mean total

51.0%NRFI

10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+9 runs12.0%

+10 runs16.0%

+11 runs18.0%

+12 runs15.0%

+13 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%

-122.0%

+129.0%

+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days

San Diego PadresBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

Colorado RockiesBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

Team	R	H	HR	BB	SP K
San Diego Padres	6.20	10.40	1.20	3.40	6.20
Colorado Rockies	5.10	8.70	1.10	3.20	5.80

San Diego Padres Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	San Diego Padres Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	San Diego Padres Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	San Diego Padres Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	San Diego Padres Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	San Diego Padres Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	San Diego Padres Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	San Diego Padres Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	San Diego Padres Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	San Diego Padres Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Colorado Rockies Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Colorado Rockies Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Colorado Rockies Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Colorado Rockies Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Colorado Rockies Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Colorado Rockies Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Colorado Rockies Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Colorado Rockies Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Colorado Rockies Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Colorado Rockies Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Starting Pitchers

Starter	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Pitches
Dylan Cease 📊	San Diego Padres	6.0	5.20	2.20	2.10	1.50	6.80	94.0
Cal Quantrill 📊	Colorado Rockies	5.2	5.50	2.80	2.60	1.80	5.90	91.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature: —
Humidity: —
Wind: —
Wind to CF: —
Carry multiplier: —
Park run factor: —

Team Context

San Diego Padres

SP: Dylan Cease (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Colorado Rockies

SP: Cal Quantrill (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value

Market	Selection	Fair	Model	Edge	EV	Stake	Added	Live	Sportsbook
Moneyline	San Diego Padres · -115	57.0%	57.0%	+7.0%	+6.6%	1.50u	11:20 AMNEW	—	Bet at DraftKings ↗

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations

94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)

44%

Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)

38%

High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)

18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches: 294.00