2:40 PM ET · Official lineups

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves is the simulated favorite at 63.0%.

Atlanta Braves5.3proj 5.3

PROJ

Miami Marlins3.5proj 3.5

63.0%Atlanta Braves win

37.0%Miami Marlins win

8.80Mean total

51.0%NRFI

10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+6 runs12.0%

+7 runs16.0%

+8 runs18.0%

+9 runs15.0%

+10 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%

-122.0%

+129.0%

+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days

Atlanta BravesBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

Miami MarlinsBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

Team	R	H	HR	BB	SP K
Atlanta Braves	5.30	9.00	1.20	3.40	6.20
Miami Marlins	3.50	6.10	1.10	3.20	5.80

Atlanta Braves Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Atlanta Braves Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Atlanta Braves Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Atlanta Braves Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Atlanta Braves Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Atlanta Braves Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Atlanta Braves Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Atlanta Braves Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Atlanta Braves Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Atlanta Braves Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Miami Marlins Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Miami Marlins Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Miami Marlins Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Miami Marlins Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Miami Marlins Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Miami Marlins Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Miami Marlins Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Miami Marlins Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Miami Marlins Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Miami Marlins Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Starting Pitchers

Starter	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Pitches
Chris Sale 📊	Atlanta Braves	6.0	5.20	2.20	2.10	1.50	6.80	94.0
Max Meyer 📊	Miami Marlins	5.2	5.50	2.80	2.60	1.80	5.90	91.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature: —
Humidity: —
Wind: —
Wind to CF: —
Carry multiplier: —
Park run factor: —

Team Context

Atlanta Braves

SP: Chris Sale (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Miami Marlins

SP: Max Meyer (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value

Market	Selection	Fair	Model	Edge	EV	Stake	Added	Live	Sportsbook
Moneyline	Atlanta Braves · -115	63.0%	63.0%	+13.0%	+17.8%	1.50u	11:20 AMNEW	—	Bet at DraftKings ↗

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations

94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)

44%

Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)

38%

High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)

18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches: 294.00