2:40 PM ET · Official lineups
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles is the simulated favorite at 56.0%.
Baltimore Orioles4.7proj 4.7
PROJ
Tampa Bay Rays3.9proj 3.9
56.0%Baltimore Orioles win
44.0%Tampa Bay Rays win
8.60Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations
DISTRIBUTION
Total runs
DISTRIBUTION
Home run margin
PERSONNEL CONTEXT
Bullpen Availability & Workload
Baltimore OriolesBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
Tampa Bay RaysBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
PROJECTION
Mean box score
| Team | R | H | HR | BB | SP K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 4.70 | 8.00 | 1.20 | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3.90 | 6.70 | 1.10 | 3.20 | 5.80 |
Baltimore Orioles Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 1 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 2 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 2 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 3 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 3 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 4 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 5 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 6 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 6 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 7 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 7 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 8 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 8 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 9 | Baltimore Orioles Batter 9 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
Tampa Bay Rays Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 1 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 2 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 3 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 4 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 5 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 6 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 7 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 8 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays Batter 9 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
Starting Pitchers
| Starter | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes 📊 | Baltimore Orioles | 6.0 | 5.20 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 6.80 | 94.0 |
| Ryan Pepiot 📊 | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.2 | 5.50 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 5.90 | 91.0 |
CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT
Pregame inputs
Weather & Park
- Temperature
- —
- Humidity
- —
- Wind
- —
- Wind to CF
- —
- Carry multiplier
- —
- Park run factor
- —
Team Context
Baltimore Orioles
SP: Corbin Burnes (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
Tampa Bay Rays
SP: Ryan Pepiot (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
PORTFOLIO
Qualified wagers
| Market | Selection | Fair | Model | Edge | EV | Stake | Added | Live | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles · -115 | 56.0% | 56.0% | +6.0% | +4.7% | 1.50u | 11:20 AMNEW | — | Bet at DraftKings ↗ |
SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE
Monte Carlo Similarity Score
94.8%
Path Alignment
Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.
Dominant Simulation Clusters
SIMULATION OPERATIONS
Usage summary
- Mean pitches
- 294.00