PHI

3:10 PM ET · Official lineups

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies is the simulated favorite at 54.0%.

NYM
Philadelphia Phillies4.9proj 4.9
PROJ
New York Mets4.4proj 4.4
54.0%Philadelphia Phillies win
46.0%New York Mets win
9.30Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+7 runs12.0%
+8 runs16.0%
+9 runs18.0%
+10 runs15.0%
+11 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%
-122.0%
+129.0%
+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days
Philadelphia PhilliesBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage
New York MetsBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

TeamRHHRBBSP K
Philadelphia Phillies4.908.301.203.406.20
New York Mets4.407.501.103.205.80

Philadelphia Phillies Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Philadelphia Phillies Batter 1 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
2Philadelphia Phillies Batter 2 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
3Philadelphia Phillies Batter 3 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4Philadelphia Phillies Batter 4 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
5Philadelphia Phillies Batter 5 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
6Philadelphia Phillies Batter 6 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
7Philadelphia Phillies Batter 7 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
8Philadelphia Phillies Batter 8 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
9Philadelphia Phillies Batter 9 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400

New York Mets Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1New York Mets Batter 1 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
2New York Mets Batter 2 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
3New York Mets Batter 3 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4New York Mets Batter 4 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
5New York Mets Batter 5 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
6New York Mets Batter 6 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
7New York Mets Batter 7 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
8New York Mets Batter 8 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
9New York Mets Batter 9 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400

Starting Pitchers

StarterTeamIPHRERBBKPitches
Zack Wheeler 📊Philadelphia Phillies6.05.202.202.101.506.8094.0
Kodai Senga 📊New York Mets5.25.502.802.601.805.9091.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature
Humidity
Wind
Wind to CF
Carry multiplier
Park run factor

Team Context

Philadelphia Phillies

SP: Zack Wheeler (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

New York Mets

SP: Kodai Senga (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value
No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations
94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)
44%
Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)
38%
High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)
18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches
294.00