3:10 PM ET · Official lineups
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies is the simulated favorite at 54.0%.
Philadelphia Phillies4.9proj 4.9
PROJ
New York Mets4.4proj 4.4
54.0%Philadelphia Phillies win
46.0%New York Mets win
9.30Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations
DISTRIBUTION
Total runs
DISTRIBUTION
Home run margin
PERSONNEL CONTEXT
Bullpen Availability & Workload
Philadelphia PhilliesBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
New York MetsBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
PROJECTION
Mean box score
| Team | R | H | HR | BB | SP K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4.90 | 8.30 | 1.20 | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| New York Mets | 4.40 | 7.50 | 1.10 | 3.20 | 5.80 |
Philadelphia Phillies Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 1 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 2 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 3 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 4 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 5 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 6 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 7 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 8 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies Batter 9 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
New York Mets Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Mets Batter 1 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 2 | New York Mets Batter 2 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 3 | New York Mets Batter 3 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | New York Mets Batter 4 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 5 | New York Mets Batter 5 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 6 | New York Mets Batter 6 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 7 | New York Mets Batter 7 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 8 | New York Mets Batter 8 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 9 | New York Mets Batter 9 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
Starting Pitchers
| Starter | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler 📊 | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.0 | 5.20 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 6.80 | 94.0 |
| Kodai Senga 📊 | New York Mets | 5.2 | 5.50 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 5.90 | 91.0 |
CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT
Pregame inputs
Weather & Park
- Temperature
- —
- Humidity
- —
- Wind
- —
- Wind to CF
- —
- Carry multiplier
- —
- Park run factor
- —
Team Context
Philadelphia Phillies
SP: Zack Wheeler (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
New York Mets
SP: Kodai Senga (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
PORTFOLIO
Qualified wagers
No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.
SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE
Monte Carlo Similarity Score
94.8%
Path Alignment
Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.
Dominant Simulation Clusters
SIMULATION OPERATIONS
Usage summary
- Mean pitches
- 294.00