3:15 PM ET · Official lineups

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs is the simulated favorite at 52.0%.

Chicago Cubs4.5proj 4.5

PROJ

St. Louis Cardinals4.2proj 4.2

52.0%Chicago Cubs win

48.0%St. Louis Cardinals win

8.70Mean total

51.0%NRFI

10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+6 runs12.0%

+7 runs16.0%

+8 runs18.0%

+9 runs15.0%

+10 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%

-122.0%

+129.0%

+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days

Chicago CubsBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

St. Louis CardinalsBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

Team	R	H	HR	BB	SP K
Chicago Cubs	4.50	7.70	1.20	3.40	6.20
St. Louis Cardinals	4.20	7.20	1.10	3.20	5.80

Chicago Cubs Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Chicago Cubs Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Chicago Cubs Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Chicago Cubs Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Chicago Cubs Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Chicago Cubs Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Chicago Cubs Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Chicago Cubs Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Chicago Cubs Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Chicago Cubs Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

St. Louis Cardinals Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	St. Louis Cardinals Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Starting Pitchers

Starter	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Pitches
Justin Steele 📊	Chicago Cubs	6.0	5.20	2.20	2.10	1.50	6.80	94.0
Sonny Gray 📊	St. Louis Cardinals	5.2	5.50	2.80	2.60	1.80	5.90	91.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature: —
Humidity: —
Wind: —
Wind to CF: —
Carry multiplier: —
Park run factor: —

Team Context

Chicago Cubs

SP: Justin Steele (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

St. Louis Cardinals

SP: Sonny Gray (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value

No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations

94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)

44%

Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)

38%

High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)

18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches: 294.00