4:05 PM ET · Official lineups

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Houston Astros is the simulated favorite at 53.0%.

Houston Astros4.8proj 4.8

PROJ

Texas Rangers4.3proj 4.3

53.0%Houston Astros win

47.0%Texas Rangers win

9.10Mean total

51.0%NRFI

10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+7 runs12.0%

+8 runs16.0%

+9 runs18.0%

+10 runs15.0%

+11 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%

-122.0%

+129.0%

+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days

Houston AstrosBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

Texas RangersBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

Team	R	H	HR	BB	SP K
Houston Astros	4.80	8.20	1.20	3.40	6.20
Texas Rangers	4.30	7.40	1.10	3.20	5.80

Houston Astros Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Houston Astros Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Houston Astros Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Houston Astros Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Houston Astros Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Houston Astros Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Houston Astros Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Houston Astros Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Houston Astros Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Houston Astros Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Texas Rangers Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Texas Rangers Batter 1 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
2	Texas Rangers Batter 2 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
3	Texas Rangers Batter 3 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
4	Texas Rangers Batter 4 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
5	Texas Rangers Batter 5 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
6	Texas Rangers Batter 6 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
7	Texas Rangers Batter 7 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
8	Texas Rangers Batter 8 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400
9	Texas Rangers Batter 9 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.260	.320	.400

Starting Pitchers

Starter	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Pitches
Framber Valdez 📊	Houston Astros	6.0	5.20	2.20	2.10	1.50	6.80	94.0
Nathan Eovaldi 📊	Texas Rangers	5.2	5.50	2.80	2.60	1.80	5.90	91.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature: —
Humidity: —
Wind: —
Wind to CF: —
Carry multiplier: —
Park run factor: —

Team Context

Houston Astros

SP: Framber Valdez (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Texas Rangers

SP: Nathan Eovaldi (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value

No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations

94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)

44%

Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)

38%

High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)

18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches: 294.00