5:45 PM ET · Official lineups
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers is the simulated favorite at 61.0%.
Los Angeles Dodgers5.6proj 5.6
PROJ
San Francisco Giants3.8proj 3.8
61.0%Los Angeles Dodgers win
39.0%San Francisco Giants win
9.40Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations
DISTRIBUTION
Total runs
DISTRIBUTION
Home run margin
PERSONNEL CONTEXT
Bullpen Availability & Workload
Los Angeles DodgersBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
San Francisco GiantsBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85%
Arms available for high leverage
PROJECTION
Mean box score
| Team | R | H | HR | BB | SP K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.60 | 9.50 | 1.20 | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| San Francisco Giants | 3.80 | 6.60 | 1.10 | 3.20 | 5.80 |
Los Angeles Dodgers Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani 📊 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 1.10 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .315 | .375 | .455 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts 📊 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .305 | .365 | .445 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman 📊 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.20 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .298 | .358 | .438 |
| 4 | Teoscar Hernandez 📊 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .262 | .322 | .402 |
| 5 | Will Smith 📊 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
San Francisco Giants Batting
| # | Player | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | K | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos 📊 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .275 | .335 | .415 |
| 2 | Matt Chapman 📊 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .252 | .312 | .392 |
| 3 | Tyler Fitzgerald 📊 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .260 | .320 | .400 |
| 4 | Michael Conforto 📊 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .240 | .300 | .380 |
| 5 | Patrick Bailey 📊 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.10 | .242 | .302 | .382 |
Starting Pitchers
| Starter | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto 📊 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.0 | 5.20 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 6.80 | 94.0 |
| Logan Webb 📊 | San Francisco Giants | 5.2 | 5.50 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 5.90 | 91.0 |
CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT
Pregame inputs
Weather & Park
- Temperature
- —
- Humidity
- —
- Wind
- —
- Wind to CF
- —
- Carry multiplier
- —
- Park run factor
- —
Team Context
Los Angeles Dodgers
SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
San Francisco Giants
SP: Logan Webb (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi
PORTFOLIO
Qualified wagers
| Market | Selection | Fair | Model | Edge | EV | Stake | Added | Live | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers · -115 | 61.0% | 61.0% | +11.0% | +14.1% | 1.50u | 11:20 AMNEW | — | Bet at DraftKings ↗ |
SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE
Monte Carlo Similarity Score
94.8%
Path Alignment
Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.
Dominant Simulation Clusters
SIMULATION OPERATIONS
Usage summary
- Mean pitches
- 294.00