LAD

5:45 PM ET · Official lineups

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers is the simulated favorite at 61.0%.

SF
Los Angeles Dodgers5.6proj 5.6
PROJ
San Francisco Giants3.8proj 3.8
61.0%Los Angeles Dodgers win
39.0%San Francisco Giants win
9.40Mean total
51.0%NRFI
10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+7 runs12.0%
+8 runs16.0%
+9 runs18.0%
+10 runs15.0%
+11 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%
-122.0%
+129.0%
+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days
Los Angeles DodgersBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage
San Francisco GiantsBullpen Availability
Optimal · Fresh
85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

TeamRHHRBBSP K
Los Angeles Dodgers5.609.501.203.406.20
San Francisco Giants3.806.601.103.205.80

Los Angeles Dodgers Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Shohei Ohtani 📊4.74.31.300.300.020.400.901.100.400.900.10.315.375.455
2Mookie Betts 📊4.54.11.300.300.020.200.700.900.400.900.10.305.365.445
3Freddie Freeman 📊4.44.01.200.300.020.200.800.800.400.900.10.298.358.438
4Teoscar Hernandez 📊4.23.81.000.200.020.300.800.600.400.900.10.262.322.402
5Will Smith 📊4.13.71.000.200.020.200.600.600.400.900.10.260.320.400

San Francisco Giants Batting

#PlayerPAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBKSBAVGOBPSLG
1Heliot Ramos 📊4.44.01.100.200.020.200.600.600.400.900.10.275.335.415
2Matt Chapman 📊4.33.91.000.200.020.200.600.600.400.900.10.252.312.392
3Tyler Fitzgerald 📊4.13.71.000.200.020.200.500.500.400.900.10.260.320.400
4Michael Conforto 📊4.03.60.900.200.020.200.500.400.400.900.10.240.300.380
5Patrick Bailey 📊3.93.50.900.200.020.100.400.400.400.900.10.242.302.382

Starting Pitchers

StarterTeamIPHRERBBKPitches
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 📊Los Angeles Dodgers6.05.202.202.101.506.8094.0
Logan Webb 📊San Francisco Giants5.25.502.802.601.805.9091.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature
Humidity
Wind
Wind to CF
Carry multiplier
Park run factor

Team Context

Los Angeles Dodgers

SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

San Francisco Giants

SP: Logan Webb (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value
MarketSelectionFairModelEdgeEVStakeAddedLiveSportsbook
MoneylineLos Angeles Dodgers · -11561.0%61.0%+11.0%+14.1%1.50u11:20 AMNEWBet at DraftKings ↗

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations
94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)
44%
Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)
38%
High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)
18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches
294.00