3:05 PM ET · Official lineups

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees is the simulated favorite at 54.0%.

New York Yankees5.2proj 5.2

PROJ

Boston Red Sox4.4proj 4.4

54.0%New York Yankees win

46.0%Boston Red Sox win

9.60Mean total

51.0%NRFI

10,000Simulations

DISTRIBUTION

Total runs

+7 runs12.0%

+8 runs16.0%

+9 runs18.0%

+10 runs15.0%

+11 runs11.0%

DISTRIBUTION

Home run margin

-214.0%

-122.0%

+129.0%

+215.0%

PERSONNEL CONTEXT

Bullpen Availability & Workload

Fatigue decay index across trailing 3 days

New York YankeesBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

Boston Red SoxBullpen Availability

Optimal · Fresh

85% Arms available for high leverage

PROJECTION

Mean box score

Team	R	H	HR	BB	SP K
New York Yankees	5.20	8.80	1.20	3.40	6.20
Boston Red Sox	4.40	7.50	1.10	3.20	5.80

New York Yankees Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Anthony Volpe 📊	4.6	4.2	1.10	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.50	0.70	0.40	0.90	0.10	.268	.328	.408
2	Juan Soto 📊	4.5	4.1	1.20	0.30	0.02	0.30	0.80	0.90	0.40	0.90	0.10	.302	.362	.442
3	Aaron Judge 📊	4.4	4.0	1.20	0.20	0.02	0.40	1.10	0.90	0.40	0.90	0.10	.318	.378	.458
4	Giancarlo Stanton 📊	4.2	3.8	0.90	0.20	0.02	0.30	0.80	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.242	.302	.382
5	Jazz Chisholm Jr. 📊	4.1	3.7	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.60	0.60	0.40	0.90	0.10	.258	.318	.398

Boston Red Sox Batting

#	Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Jarren Duran 📊	4.6	4.2	1.30	0.30	0.02	0.10	0.40	0.80	0.40	0.90	0.10	.288	.348	.428
2	Rafael Devers 📊	4.4	4.0	1.20	0.30	0.02	0.30	0.90	0.80	0.40	0.90	0.10	.295	.355	.435
3	Tyler O'Neill 📊	4.2	3.8	1.00	0.20	0.02	0.30	0.70	0.60	0.40	0.90	0.10	.255	.315	.395
4	Triston Casas 📊	4.1	3.7	0.90	0.20	0.02	0.20	0.60	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.250	.310	.390
5	Ceddanne Rafaela 📊	4.0	3.6	0.90	0.20	0.02	0.10	0.40	0.50	0.40	0.90	0.10	.245	.305	.385

Starting Pitchers

Starter	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Pitches
Gerrit Cole 📊	New York Yankees	6.0	5.20	2.20	2.10	1.50	6.80	94.0
Brayan Bello 📊	Boston Red Sox	5.2	5.50	2.80	2.60	1.80	5.90	91.0

CONDITIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Pregame inputs

Model snapshot

Weather & Park

Temperature: —
Humidity: —
Wind: —
Wind to CF: —
Carry multiplier: —
Park run factor: —

Team Context

New York Yankees

SP: Gerrit Cole (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

Boston Red Sox

SP: Brayan Bello (0 pitches projected) · Bullpen health: 0% · Travel: 0 mi

PORTFOLIO

Qualified wagers

Sorted by expected value

No qualified wagersNo current price clears the portfolio selection and sizing gates.

SIMULATION TRAJECTORY ENGINE

Monte Carlo Similarity Score

Path match across 10,000 simulations

94.8% Path Alignment

Current game pace, run distributions, and lineup handedness match the 95th percentile of simulated iterations.

Dominant Simulation Clusters

SP Pitchers' Duel (≤ 7 Runs)

44%

Balanced Contest (8 - 10 Runs)

38%

High-Scoring Bullpen Game (11+ Runs)

18%

SIMULATION OPERATIONS

Usage summary

Mean pitches: 294.00