MLB SUMMARY · SATURDAY
September 5, 2026
Daily simulation snapshot, portfolio performance lookback, and executive calibration intelligence.
15Games
10,000Sims / game
7Qualified bets
10.25uKelly exposure
PORTFOLIO TRACK RECORD
Performance Lookback
Yesterday
Sep 04
+0.00u
Win Rate0.0% (0-0)
ROI0.0%
Beat CLV0.0%
Wagers0
Past 7 Days
Aug 29 – Sep 04
-8.17u
Win Rate55.4% (82-66)
ROI-5.5%
Beat CLV9.5%
Wagers148
Past 30 Days
Aug 06 – Sep 04
+72.82u
Win Rate61.2% (810-514)
ROI+5.5%
Beat CLV11.7%
Wagers1,324
Season to Date
Jun 01 – Sep 04
+80.06u
Win Rate58.7% (2778-1958)
ROI+1.7%
Beat CLV12.5%
Wagers4,736
🤖 AI Simulation Intelligence
Executive Calibration Briefing
Model Integrity: 93.7%
The 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo engine has simulated today's 15-game slate with a calibration integrity score of 93.7%. Contact mechanics and Statcast zone allocations are closely tracking historical baselines. Recommended wagers reflect fitted dynamic subset policies with strict positive expected value hurdles.
Calibration Strengths
- ✓Called strike distribution calibrated within 0.5% of trailing MLB baseline
- ✓Whiff-per-swing tracking within 0.8% across starting pitchers
- ✓Batted ball launch profile matches trailing Statcast ground ball and fly ball splits
Audit Watch Areas
- !Bullpen high-leverage workload elevated in extra-inning simulated paths
- !Chase contact rate in Zone 14 running slightly conservative against left-handed pitchers
September 04 Standout Calls
- ★Underdog value identification: Flagged Baltimore ML (+145) with 52.4% simulated probability.
- ★Total runs convergence: Projected 8.4 runs across slate with 4.2 runs/team mean forecast.
- ★Strikeout accuracy: 87% of starting pitcher projections landed within 1.5 strikeouts of actuals.
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